Forecastic

Will USAID be eliminated?

If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 15% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $155K. Market closes January 20, 2029.

politicsKalshiCloses Jan 20

Will USAID be eliminated?

15%
Yes
YES—
NO—
24h vol$0
Open interest$28K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.

Forecastic Analysis
Will USAID be eliminated? (15% odds) | Forecastic