Good evening

Peace talks optimism sends Russia-Ukraine diplomacy markets surging

The market on whether Russia and Ukraine will hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026 surges +83pp to 58%, the single largest move in the dataset, while two longer-dated versions of the same question also climb, averaging +39pp across the cluster. All three markets move in the same direction on the same underlying development — a shared catalyst driving traders to price in a dramatically higher likelihood of near-term talks.