Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This is a polymarket prediction market in the world category. Currently priced at 2% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $263K. 24-hour volume: $917. Market closes January 1, 2027.
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sign in to get a grounded three-sentence read of this market.