Which countries will have recessions?
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 14% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $82K. Market closes December 31, 2027.
Updated Trade on Kalshi
economicsKalshiCloses Dec 31
Which countries will have recessions?
14%
United Kingdom
YES—
NO—
24h vol$0
Open interest$13K
Resolution Rules
Primary
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.