Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 1% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $226K. 24-hour volume: $3K. Market closes October 28, 2026.
Updated Trade on Kalshi
economicsKalshiCloses today
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
1%
Yes
YES—
NO—
24h vol$3K
Open interest$213K
Resolution Rules
Primary
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.