Forecastic

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 24% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $576K. 24-hour volume: $2K. Market closes January 20, 2029.

politicsKalshiCloses Jan 20

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

24%
Yes
YES28¢
NO73¢
24h vol$2K
Open interest$224K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

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