Forecastic

Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 98% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $323K. 24-hour volume: $15. Market closes November 3, 2026.

politicsKalshiCloses Tuesday

Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?

98%
Yes
YES99¢
NO3¢
24h vol$15
Open interest$48K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters. Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes. The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution). The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.

Forecastic Analysis

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