Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 740,000?
If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 740,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 2% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $50K. 24-hour volume: $7K. Market closes November 16, 2026.
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 740,000?
Resolution Rules
If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are above 740,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026, including residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies. This is a policy inventory, not policies written during the year or new business. The market remains open past September 30 because the September 30 policy count is published later, typically in the following quarterly data release. Resolution uses the first official September 30, 2026 figure; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
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