Will there be a recession in 2026?
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 4% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $3.7M. 24-hour volume: $4K. Market closes January 31, 2027.
Will there be a recession in 2026?
Resolution Rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.