Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 17% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $52K. Market closes January 28, 2027.
Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?
Resolution Rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
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