Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 16% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $46K. Market closes January 1, 2028.
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?
Resolution Rules
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2028 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
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