Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the technology category. Currently priced at 31% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $52K. 24-hour volume: $47. Market closes January 1, 2031.
Updated Trade on Kalshi
technologyKalshiCloses Jan 1
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
31%
China
YES—
NO—
24h vol$47
Open interest$21K
Resolution Rules
Primary
If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
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