Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 23% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $98K. 24-hour volume: $2K. Market closes January 3, 2027.
Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?
Resolution Rules
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
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