Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 17% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $58K. Market closes January 5, 2027.
Updated Trade on Kalshi
politicsKalshiCloses Jan 5
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
17%
Yes
YES—
NO—
24h vol$0
Open interest$41K
Resolution Rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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