When will the next U.S. recession start?
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 6% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $86K. Market closes December 31, 2026.
When will the next U.S. recession start?
Resolution Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
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