Forecastic

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

This is a polymarket prediction market in the science category. Currently priced at 5% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $1.1M. 24-hour volume: $18. Market closes January 1, 2027.

sciencePolymarketCloses Jan 1

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

5%
Yes▲ 0pp
YES—
NO—
24h vol$18
Liquidity$26K
Resolution Rules

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Forecastic Analysis

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