Forecastic

Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

If Jack Smith has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 12% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $74K. 24-hour volume: $21. Market closes January 1, 2027.

politicsKalshiCloses Jan 1

Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

12%
Yes
YES—
NO—
24h vol$21
Open interest$26K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If Jack Smith has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.

Forecastic Analysis

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