Forecastic

Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the

This is a polymarket prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 43% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $79K. 24-hour volume: $66K. Market closes October 28, 2026.

politicsPolymarketCloses today

Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

43%
Yes▼ 1pp
YES48¢
NO54¢
24h vol$66K
Liquidity$50K
Resolution Rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Sourcehttps://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page
Forecastic Analysis

Sign in to get a grounded three-sentence read of this market.