Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the weather category. Currently priced at 65% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $380K. 24-hour volume: $2K. Market closes January 1, 2027.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Resolution Rules
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
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